Job Risk Score
A composite score (0-100) measuring occupation-level risk across four dimensions. Higher scores indicate greater risk. Confidence bands are derived from calibrated rolling backtests.
Components
Automation Pressure
35%Blends occupation-level probabilities (Frey & Osborne, Webb, GPT Exposure) with task-level analysis. 60% task-level, 40% occupation-level weighting. Industry growth acts as a dampener.
Wage Stress
25%5-year inflation-adjusted salary trend via linear regression. Declining real wages signal oversupply or reduced demand.
Structural Demand Weakness
25%BLS 10-year employment projections (50%) blended with observed employment trends (50%). Projections are structural scenarios, not point forecasts.
Skill Resilience Offset
15%Measures adaptability through skill breadth, transferability to adjacent roles, and non-routine task share. Higher resilience reduces composite risk.
Data Sources
Limitations
- •Automation probabilities are based on 2013-2023 research and may not reflect latest AI capabilities.
- •BLS projections have ~5.6% mean absolute error per year.
- •Industry growth dampener uses broad industry codes, not occupation-specific growth.